There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some kind of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps that could be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. Simply because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For example, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that may help you over time. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to add 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. sv288 on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.