The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting it doesn't should be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
As with every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
Initially, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was almost never in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. https://188betviet.com/ was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are much too smart to let you parlay first half to game. Should they do allow you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. This type of bet, however, needed that you have an opinion on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or to develop a potential win if you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will never be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is not as likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you should consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.