The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you would still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting it doesn't need to be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the greatest extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great opportunity for the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The initial half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the first half was successful. For sv288 to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, required that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win should you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is not as likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because progressively more are realizing these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.