The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't have to be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the best extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. nhà cái 123win allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
Initially, this were a great chance for the book. The standard coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a total of 52 first-half points. The initial half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are much too smart to permit you to parlay first half to game. If they do enable you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken up to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an edge in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, needed that you have an impression privately or the full total. Parlaying is another solution to boost your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win in case you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Therefore, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
In case you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books wouldn't normally allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the side to the full total in the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.